Will the RBA Pull the Trigger This September?

The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 28 and 29 September 2026, and the published evidence leans towards an increase in the cash rate — announced on 29 September and taking effect the next day, from 4.35 per cent to 4.60 per cent. The leaning is not certainty: the Bank has already held twice this year with inflation where it stands now, and it will decide the day before the August inflation reading is published. If it waits, the next opportunity is 2–3 November.

The newest inflation figure, published on 26 August

Consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July 2026, down from 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 26 August 2026 (ABS). That is the newest inflation figure in existence, and it is the last one the Board will have when it sits.

The measure the Bank watches most closely is the trimmed mean, which leaves out the largest price rises and falls in any month to show the underlying trend. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6 per cent over the year to July 2026, unchanged from 3.6 per cent over the year to June. That is 0.6 percentage points above the top of the Bank's 2 to 3 per cent target range.

In the month of July alone, prices rose 1.0 per cent before seasonal adjustment and 0.6 per cent after it. Over the year, electricity rose 6.1 per cent, new dwellings 5.7 per cent, housing 5.0 per cent, rents 3.6 per cent, food and non-alcoholic drinks 3.2 per cent, recreation and culture 2.6 per cent and transport 1.6 per cent. Transport ran at 0.1 per cent over the year to June, and automotive fuel rose 7.5 per cent in the single month of July.

Annual change in consumer prices, selected categories, July 2026 (ABS Consumer Price Index)

The Australian Financial Review reported that the 3.5 per cent headline was above the 3.3 per cent economists had expected before the release, and described a September rise as "firmly in play" (Inflation Rises Above Forecasts Putting Rate Rise Firmly In Play P60Rgy).

Where the cash rate stands

The cash rate target is 4.35 per cent. It was left unchanged at the 11 August 2026 decision, effective 12 August (Cash Rate, RBA). The Bank has raised three times in 2026: on 4 February, to 3.85 per cent; on 18 March, to 4.10 per cent; and on 6 May, to 4.35 per cent. It has held twice since, on 17 June and 12 August. Before that, the target sat at 3.60 per cent through the meetings of October, November and December 2025, following a cut on 13 August 2025 that remains the last reduction.

RBA cash rate target at each decision, August 2025 to August 2026 (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Every move this year has been 0.25 percentage points, so a further increase would put the target at 4.60 per cent. The Australian Financial Review described that as a fourth rise this year and the highest borrowing costs in nearly 15 years (Inflation Rises Above Forecasts Putting Rate Rise Firmly In Play P60Rgy). It would also be the first change since 6 May, a gap of about four and a half months.

What the Board will have, and what it will not

The September meeting is the sixth of the Bank's eight scheduled meetings for 2026, and its dates are published on the Bank's own schedule (Board Meeting Schedules). A decision is released at 2.30pm after the meeting ends, and any change takes effect the following day.

The Board will not have an August inflation number. The August reading is scheduled for 30 September, the day after the meeting ends; the September reading is scheduled for 28 October and the October reading for 25 November (ABS). Both of the later two land before the 2–3 November meeting. The Board therefore decides on data through July 2026, plus its own August forecasts (RBA).

One consequence of a change made in November 2025: the separate monthly inflation indicator no longer exists as its own series. Its final release was on 29 October 2025, covering September 2025, when it stood at 3.5 per cent over the year with an annual trimmed mean of 2.8 per cent (ABS). Monthly figures now sit inside the main consumer price index release, and from February 2027 that release moves to the fourth Wednesday of each month.

The case for an increase on 29 September

The Bank's own August forecasts have trimmed mean inflation above 3 per cent until mid-2027, easing to 2.5 per cent in early 2028 (RBA). Those forecasts assume the cash rate barely moves: they are built on a market path that adds about 10 basis points over 2026 and contains less than one full increase by the end of the year. Above-target inflation is therefore projected on the assumption that rates stay near 4.35 per cent. The risks to that projection are judged to be "skewed to the upside".

New upward pressure lands inside the September quarter. The Bank expects the roll-off of the fuel excise reduction in July and August to lift retail fuel prices and quarterly headline inflation. July already showed automotive fuel up 7.5 per cent in the month and the monthly consumer price index up 1.0 per cent in original terms (ABS). The Board has also held twice already with trimmed mean at 3.6 per cent.

The case for waiting until November

The newest completed reading shows headline inflation slowing, from 3.8 per cent over the year to June to 3.5 per cent over the year to July (ABS). The trimmed mean has not accelerated at all, holding at 3.6 per cent across the same two months. Electricity has swung hard the other way, from 22.4 per cent over the year to June to 6.1 per cent over the year to July. The Bank says headline inflation "is now expected to have peaked in the June quarter 2026" and to return to the target range by early 2027 (RBA).

A Board inclined to wait has cover. Two further inflation prints and a second meeting fall before the end of the year, and the Bank has twice held at 4.35 per cent in something close to the present configuration.

What the published record does not settle

No decision, forecast or published guidance from the Bank states an intended outcome for September (RBA, RBA). As at 15 September 2026, the most recent decision anywhere in its material is 11 August 2026. The August inflation figure does not exist yet (ABS). Some commercial calendar and consumer finance websites have published a September result; none of it can be traced to an official release, and none of it carries a figure that can be checked.

The read

The balance of the published evidence points to an increase on 29 September, to 4.60 per cent. The reason is that the Bank's own numbers show inflation above target for another year on the assumption that the cash rate hardly moves, while July brought fuel prices up 7.5 per cent in a single month and the trimmed mean stayed 0.6 percentage points above the band (ABS).

The case against is not weak, and it rests on the Bank's own recent behaviour: two holds this year with trimmed mean at 3.6 per cent. If the Board waits again, the argument does not collapse. It moves to 2–3 November, with a quarter of price data in hand, and the same choice waiting there.

Nothing here is financial, legal or investment advice. Every figure is published by its named source and carries the date it was published; figures may since have changed.